Metro Vancouver’s October Real Estate Surge: Buyer Demand Picks Up with Rate Cuts
After months of lagging, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market is finally showing signs of revival. October 2024 marked a substantial rebound in buyer demand, with home sales rising over 30% year-over-year. This surge reflects both a response to recent mortgage rate reductions and a shift in market dynamics after months of waiting.
Key Highlights from October 2024:
- Home Sales: Residential sales registered on the MLS® system reached 2,632 units in October, up 31.9% from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023.
- New Listings: A total of 5,452 homes were newly listed in October, reflecting a 16.9% increase from the previous year and 20% above the 10-year seasonal average.
- Total Active Listings: Currently, 14,477 properties are listed for sale, marking a 24.8% increase from October 2023.
Analyzing the Demand Shift: Rate Cuts and Buyer Confidence
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), attributes this resurgence to recent rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. “Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months,” Lis noted. Four consecutive rate cuts have created optimism for more to come, motivating many buyers who had previously hesitated.
Despite this uptick, sales are still 5.5% below the 10-year seasonal average, indicating that while the market is heating up, there is still room for growth.
Sales-to-Active Listings Ratios Signal a Shift
The sales-to-active listings ratio—an essential indicator of market balance—registered at 18.8% in October. This ratio varies by property type, with:
- Detached Homes: 13.4%
- Attached Homes: 22.5%
- Apartments: 22.2%
This trend suggests the attached and apartment segments are edging towards a seller’s market, with detached homes not far behind. Historically, a ratio above 20% for several months tends to drive home prices up, while a ratio below 12% signals a potential decrease. Lis remarked on the significance of this shift, noting that October’s strength hints at a possible end to recent price moderation, particularly in the attached and apartment segments.
Benchmark Prices: Modest Fluctuations Across the Board
October saw some minor adjustments in benchmark prices across property types:
- All Residential Properties: $1,172,200, a 1.9% decrease year-over-year and a 0.6% drop from September.
- Detached Homes: $2,002,900, with a modest 0.3% increase over last year but a 1% decrease from September.
- Apartments: $757,200, down 1.6% from October 2023 and 0.6% from last month.
- Attached Homes (Townhouses): $1,108,800, showing a slight 0.4% year-over-year increase and a 0.9% rise from September.
These figures indicate that while sales activity has risen, price growth has remained moderate, likely due to balanced market conditions.
What’s Ahead for Metro Vancouver’s Housing Market?
The October surge suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. With mortgage rates dropping and the Bank of Canada’s ongoing adjustments, buyer activity could continue to grow, especially in the attached and apartment segments. If demand maintains its current momentum, the moderate pricing environment might start trending upward, pushing the Metro Vancouver market closer to a seller’s market.
For buyers, this could be an opportune moment to take advantage of favorable borrowing conditions, while sellers may begin to see a stronger position in the coming months.