Will there be a Real Estate Market Crash in Vancouver?

The global pandemic left everyone, especially in the real estate market, weary. As more businesses start to close and people are filing bankruptcy, there is no doubt that even the global housing status is at the mercy of failing. One of the concerns that worries everyone of a housing crash is the number of unemployed. While the great depression is not far from happening, there are measures that the government, especially in Vancouver, Canada has put in place to keep the economy on its feet. 

Current Housing Prices In Metro Vancouver

 

In the past few months, Vancouver house prices have significantly increased, pushing more home buyers out of the real estate market. Condo values have also dropped and experts predict that this trend will not be for long since first-time homebuyers consider purchasing a condo as the first step in climbing the property ladder. Being the primary source of downpayment, the value of condos will eventually rise. 

 

The pandemic has changed the way people buy property. The first wave of buyers is upsizing as they need to have enough space for working from home. Since the acceleration of house prices began, renters also fear missing out on another opportunity to generate more income. This is why first-time homebuyers who are looking into building equity decided to explore the apartment market in late 2020 up to early 2021. 

 

While school from home and work from home are factors that currently dictate house prices, will this ever change once the pandemic is over? 

 

According to a survey conducted by CIBC, more than 20% of people who are working from home will return to the office and even the vast majority of students will go back to their schools full-time. With this in mind, points will lead back to living to exurbs, outer-suburbs, and even cabin country.

 

For homeowners who are planning to sell their homes, home values are almost all-time highs. This is why now is the good time to sell, but over the next two years, considering the negative impact that the COVID crisis has brought, there is no guarantee that the current values will stay the same. The uncertainty of the current house prices is due to the recession and the possibility for a surge of COVID-19 cases. 

 

As for the risk involved factoring in the pandemic, house price growth is more likely to become very high. Based on the property market risk assessment, the degree of vulnerability is low since the demand is outpacing supply. The price acceleration is also low because of the continuous increase of the rate of price growth. There is a moderate risk in excess inventories because the number of active listings exceeds the current demand in the real estate market. The risk of overvaluation remains low because house prices are above levels taking economic fundamentals and employment conditions into account. 

 

While home prices have dropped significantly in Vancouver, that does not mean they are very affordable. If you are a first-time homebuyer with a household earning of approximately $75,000, the approved amount of mortgage you can get is only around $300,000. If you intend to purchase a condo with a benchmark price of $680,000, you need to fork out $380,000 for the downpayment. All in all, this is still a good time to buy because you can benefit from lower prices and interest rates as they remain unchanged.